Border quarantine, vaccination and public health measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 importations in Australia: a modelling study

Abstract

We developed a flexible infectious disease model framework that combines a detailed individual-based model of arrival pathways (quarantine model) and an individual-based model of the arrivals environment (community model) to inform border risk assessments. The work was motivated by Australia's desire to safely increase international arrival volumes, which had been heavily constrained since early 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. These analyses supported decisions on quarantine and border policy in the context of the Australian government's national reopening plan in late 2021. The quarantine model provides a detailed representation of transmission within quarantine and time-varying ..